Keeling Curve Trend
Lesson notes
Overview
Atmospheric CO₂ has risen steadily with seasonal wiggles. This topic is rated intermediate and is number 67 of 98 in Earth & Space. Builds on the basics with relationships, methods and trade-offs.
What you are seeing
The panel above shows a graph of the function. Each slider changes one parameter, so you can see exactly how the curve bends, shifts or stretches. The animation is drawn live from the model, so everything you see responds to the sliders. Press Space to pause, use Restart to replay from the start, and change the speed to slow down quick events.
In depth
Since 1958 Charles Keeling and colleagues have measured atmospheric CO₂ at Mauna Loa in Hawaii. The record, the Keeling Curve, shows a steady rise from 315 ppm to more than 420 ppm, as well as a yearly sawtooth of about 6 ppm, caused by plants in the northern hemisphere taking up CO₂ in summer and releasing it in winter. The curve is described by a trend plus a seasonal sine, C(t) = C₀ + at + b sin(2πt), and the rate of increase is itself growing.
Reading the relationship
The expression "C(t) = C₀ + at + b sin(2πt)" is a compact summary of the idea. It uses the symbols C, t, C₀, a, b, π; name what each one stands for before you start. Notice that it contains a trigonometric function, so the result repeats as the angle goes round. Then use the sliders to see how changing one quantity changes the others.
A guided exploration
1. Set every slider to its middle value and note the shape of the curve. 2. Move one slider at a time and describe whether the curve shifts, stretches or turns. 3. Find the value where the behaviour changes sharply, then connect it to the formula.
Try this
Predict the outcome first, then test extreme slider values to find where the pattern changes or breaks.
Common pitfalls
Earth and space systems work on very different scales of time and distance. Check which scale a number refers to before comparing it with another.
How it connects
It builds on “CO₂ and Radiative Forcing”, the topic before it in Earth & Space. Once you are comfortable, continue with “Ocean Acidification and pH”.
Why it matters
Earth and space science helps us understand our planet, its climate and the wider universe.
Where you might use it
- Revising “Keeling Curve Trend” before a class, exam or certification
- Forecasting weather and understanding climate records and their uncertainty
- Planning for earthquakes, floods and other natural hazards in cities
- Interpreting satellite images, space missions and the age of rocks and stars
Frequently asked questions
What is Keeling Curve Trend?
Atmospheric CO₂ has risen steadily with seasonal wiggles. It is an intermediate topic in Earth & Space.
How do I use the Keeling Curve Trend simulation?
The panel at the top shows a graph of the function. Each slider changes one parameter, so you can see exactly how the curve bends, shifts or stretches. Move the sliders one at a time, then press Space to pause the animation and look closer.
What does the formula mean?
The expression C(t) = C₀ + at + b sin(2πt) packs the idea into symbols. Name each symbol first, then change one quantity with the sliders and see which others respond.
Who is this topic for?
Builds on the basics with relationships, methods and trade-offs. If the quiz feels hard, reread the lesson notes and try the previous topic first.
What should I learn before this?
Start with “CO₂ and Radiative Forcing”, the previous topic in Earth & Space. Each topic in a subject builds on the ones before it.
How do I track my progress?
Press “Mark as learned” on this page. Progress is stored only in this browser and is never sent anywhere. The Browse page can show topics you have learned or still need to learn.